Trump’s India visit and changing paradigm of Indian-American politics

Trump’s India visit and changing paradigm of Indian-American politics

Amidst the roller-coaster ride and the usual bumps and bruises that have come to define the bilateral trade policy of the Trump administration, the Indian-American politics too is undergoing a tectonic shift in the US. It is in this realm of this paradigm shift that President Trump’s upcoming India trip assumes significance.

A lot has happened since there was a talk of US President Donald J Trump visiting India last time. As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi won his second term in office with an overwhelming majority, the UK just handed the Labor Party its worst defeat in almost a century paving for a smooth Brexit. President Trump himself was impeached by the US House but was acquitted of all charges by the US Senate.

It was rumored in the Social Media that President Trump was to go to India. On August 2, 2018 the then White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders had confirmed that “the invitation has been extended.” President Trump was invited to attend India’s Republic Day Parade on January 26, 2019. President Trump, however, ended up not going.

This time around, in a few days from now, President Trump will spend two days in India, February 24-25. Accompanied by Melania, the First Lady of the United States, Trump will meet with PM Modi. He will also attend a roadshow and a campaign style rally in PM Modi’s home state of Gujarat.

When Trump acquired the residency of the White House after beating the now famous 90-something percent odds of Hillary Clinton winning the election in 2016, many were surprised. Most India-watchers, however, had high expectations from a Trump presidency in terms of US-India relationships. Much of that hype, however, has now frittered away.

Trump won a landslide electoral college victory on his ‘America First’ platform with the promise of ‘draining the swamp’. With a protectionist approach to international trade, the US imposed retaliatory tariffs after India imposed tariffs on the import of select US goods. India’s vote on Jerusalem and its refusal to shut down its North Korean embassy in Delhi were diplomatically the low points of the Indo-US relationship in the past few years. Trade between world’s largest and the oldest democracies has been growing steadily since the days of George W Bush presidency. But so have the tensions, especially during the Trump era. Beside the accusation of increasing tariffs on select American goods, concerns on intellectual property rights as well as focus on bilateral trade deficit have created bumps and roadblock in the Indo-US trade negotiations.

The world is learning to deal with Trump and adjust to his confrontational, unpredictable, and often abrasive workstyle. To say that dealing with Trump is a bit challenging is an understatement. His unconventional style of functioning can prove to be a huge nightmare for both politicians and diplomats. The changing world order with rising populism, nationalism, and multipolarity present another level of complexity in trade and diplomatic negotiations.

Aside from the regular hussle and bussle that comes with any head of the state visit, one cannot lose sight of the upcoming US presidential election in November. Of particular interest here is the Indian American politics that is witnessing a paradigm shift led by the events of the past few months.

In the US, the Indian diaspora is numerically quite insignificant (about 1%). It is, however, the most educated, progressive, and prosperous ethnic group in the US. It is no secret that the Indian Americans overwhelmingly tend to vote for the Democratic Party candidates. They also contribute disproportionately to Democratic candidates’ campaign funds. But in the aftermath of the events in India, particularly after the abrogation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution and the passing of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) by the Indian Parliament into law, the ground game has changed quite perceptively.

Many prominent Democrats, including US House and Senate members, have criticized the move of the Indian government. Congressional hearings were held and resolutions were tabled in different forums opposing the moves on Article 370 and CAA. This has angered many in the Indian diaspora. Largely neutral when it comes to political activism, Indian Americans were left scrambling to counter the all around negative narrative. They managed to get a couple of India-friendly speakers to testify in the congressional hearings that were largely dominated by Pakistani proxies and anti-India South Asianists. It is worth noting that South Asia has become an euphemism for anti-India and anti-Hindu activities and many Indians have started resisting and rejecting that label.

Indian Americans also organized themselves in Seattle to first get the anti-CAA vote in the City Council postponed. Then they were able to convince several council members to stay away from voting. Similarly, members of the diaspora organized to represent the pro-India and pro-Hindu views in a town hall meeting organized by Congresswoman Lauren Underwood (Democrat, Illinois Congressional District 14). The first-time Incumbent Underwood is facing a tough reelection battle in her district. These two organic political activism have provided a new spark as well as a framework for other communities across the US to organize themselves.

Indian Americans are also encouraged by the outcome of the UK parliamentary elections. There are remarkable similarities between the Labor Party of UK and the Democratic Party in the US. Those similarities are not lost on anyone. In addition to their anti-India and anti-Hindu stands, they are both running left of Center. Many Democratic leaders take pride in calling themselves Democratic Socialists. In the recently concluded UK elections, the Indian diaspora strategically shifted its voting preferences which significantly affected the outcome of the general elections.

As an astute politician, President Trump is well aware of this brewing change in the Indian diaspora. If his appearance at the ‘Howdy! Modi’ event was an attempt at gauging the mood of the Indian diaspora, his visit to India is also an attempt to solidify his support among increasingly disenchanted Indian-American democrats.